mens · season 2024
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 135 cutoffs from
2023-11-20 to 2024-04-09.
Axis spans 0.75 to 1.06.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2024-01-24, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Houston
- Iowa State
- Tennessee
- Rutgers
- Arizona
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Cougars | 0.85 | 118 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 2 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.89 | 118 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 3 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.90 | 118 | #2 Elite 8 (out) |
| 4 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.93 | 118 | — |
| 5 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.93 | 118 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 6 | Virginia Cavaliers | 0.93 | 118 | #10 Play-in (out) |
| 7 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.94 | 118 | #5 Round of 64 (out) |
| 8 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.94 | 118 | #5 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 9 | Auburn Tigers | 0.94 | 118 | #4 Round of 64 (out) |
| 10 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.94 | 118 | #4 Round of 32 (out) |
| 11 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.94 | 118 | #9 Round of 32 (out) |
| 12 | UCF Knights | 0.95 | 118 | — |
| 13 | UConn Huskies | 0.95 | 118 | #1 Champion |
| 14 | Villanova Wildcats | 0.95 | 118 | — |
| 15 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.95 | 118 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 16 | Marquette Golden Eagles | 0.95 | 118 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 17 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.96 | 118 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.96 | 118 | — |
| 19 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.96 | 118 | — |
| 20 | Utah Utes | 0.96 | 118 | — |
| 21 | Providence Friars | 0.96 | 118 | — |
| 22 | Creighton Bluejays | 0.97 | 118 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 23 | Purdue Boilermakers | 0.97 | 118 | #1 Title game (out) |
| 24 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.97 | 118 | — |
| 25 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.97 | 118 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2024-03-17) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.