mens · season 2023
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 129 cutoffs from
2022-11-20 to 2023-04-04.
Axis spans 0.62 to 1.04.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2023-01-20, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Tennessee
- UCLA
- Alabama
- Rutgers
- Houston
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.84 | 112 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 2 | UCLA Bruins | 0.87 | 112 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.88 | 112 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 4 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.88 | 112 | — |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 0.88 | 112 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 6 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.90 | 112 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 7 | Northwestern Wildcats | 0.91 | 112 | #7 Round of 32 (out) |
| 8 | Texas Longhorns | 0.91 | 112 | #2 Elite 8 (out) |
| 9 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.91 | 112 | #11 Play-in (out) |
| 10 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.91 | 112 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 11 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.92 | 112 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 12 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.92 | 112 | #5 Title game (out) |
| 13 | Sam Houston Bearkats | 0.92 | 112 | — |
| 14 | Auburn Tigers | 0.93 | 112 | #9 Round of 32 (out) |
| 15 | TCU Horned Frogs | 0.93 | 112 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.93 | 112 | — |
| 17 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.93 | 112 | — |
| 18 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.93 | 112 | #8 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 19 | Boise State Broncos | 0.93 | 112 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | Creighton Bluejays | 0.94 | 112 | #6 Elite 8 (out) |
| 21 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.94 | 112 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 22 | VCU Rams | 0.94 | 112 | #12 Round of 64 (out) |
| 23 | Seton Hall Pirates | 0.94 | 112 | — |
| 24 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.94 | 112 | #9 Round of 64 (out) |
| 25 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.94 | 112 | #7 Sweet 16 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2023-03-12) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.