mens · season 2026
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 131 cutoffs from
2025-11-20 to 2026-04-07.
Axis spans 0.77 to 1.04.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2026-01-22, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Duke
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Gonzaga
- Iowa State
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.88 | 114 | #1 Elite 8 (out) |
| 2 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.89 | 114 | #1 Final Four (out) |
| 3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.89 | 114 | #1 Champion |
| 4 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 0.90 | 114 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 5 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.90 | 114 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 6 | Florida Gators | 0.90 | 114 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 7 | Houston Cougars | 0.91 | 114 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 8 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.92 | 114 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 9 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.92 | 114 | #4 Round of 32 (out) |
| 10 | UConn Huskies | 0.93 | 114 | #2 Title game (out) |
| 11 | St. John's Red Storm | 0.94 | 114 | #5 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.95 | 114 | — |
| 13 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.95 | 114 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 14 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.96 | 114 | #6 Elite 8 (out) |
| 15 | Virginia Cavaliers | 0.96 | 114 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Seton Hall Pirates | 0.96 | 114 | — |
| 17 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.97 | 114 | — |
| 18 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 0.97 | 114 | — |
| 19 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.97 | 114 | #7 Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.97 | 114 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 21 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.97 | 114 | #3 Final Four (out) |
| 22 | Clemson Tigers | 0.98 | 114 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 23 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.98 | 114 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 24 | TCU Horned Frogs | 0.98 | 114 | #9 Round of 32 (out) |
| 25 | Grand Canyon Lopes | 0.99 | 114 | — |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2026-03-15) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.