mens · season 2022
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 129 cutoffs from
2021-11-23 to 2022-04-05.
Axis spans 0.70 to 1.08.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2022-01-28, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Texas Tech
- San Diego State
- Tennessee
- VCU
- LSU
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.85 | 110 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 2 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.86 | 110 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 3 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.87 | 110 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 4 | VCU Rams | 0.88 | 110 | — |
| 5 | LSU Tigers | 0.88 | 110 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 6 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 0.88 | 110 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 7 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.89 | 110 | — |
| 8 | Houston Cougars | 0.89 | 110 | #5 Elite 8 (out) |
| 9 | Auburn Tigers | 0.90 | 110 | #2 Round of 32 (out) |
| 10 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.90 | 110 | #4 Elite 8 (out) |
| 11 | Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 0.91 | 110 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 12 | Texas Longhorns | 0.91 | 110 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 13 | Baylor Bears | 0.91 | 110 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 14 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.91 | 110 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 15 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.91 | 110 | #11 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 16 | UCLA Bruins | 0.91 | 110 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 17 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.91 | 110 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 18 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.91 | 110 | #12 Round of 64 (out) |
| 19 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.92 | 110 | — |
| 20 | San Francisco Dons | 0.93 | 110 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 21 | North Texas Mean Green | 0.93 | 110 | — |
| 22 | Creighton Bluejays | 0.93 | 110 | #9 Round of 32 (out) |
| 23 | Kentucky Wildcats | 0.94 | 110 | #2 Round of 64 (out) |
| 24 | Boise State Broncos | 0.94 | 110 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 25 | Seton Hall Pirates | 0.94 | 110 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2022-03-13) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.