mens · season 2022
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 129 cutoffs from
2021-11-23 to 2022-04-05.
Axis spans 0.02 to 0.47.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2022-01-28, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Gonzaga
- Arizona
- Houston
- Kentucky
- Baylor
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjME | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 0.34 | 110 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 2 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.31 | 110 | #1 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 3 | Houston Cougars | 0.31 | 110 | #5 Elite 8 (out) |
| 4 | Kentucky Wildcats | 0.29 | 110 | #2 Round of 64 (out) |
| 5 | Baylor Bears | 0.29 | 110 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 6 | Villanova Wildcats | 0.29 | 110 | #2 Final Four (out) |
| 7 | UCLA Bruins | 0.28 | 110 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 8 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.28 | 110 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 9 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.28 | 110 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 10 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.28 | 110 | #1 Champion |
| 11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.27 | 110 | #5 Round of 64 (out) |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 0.26 | 110 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 13 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.26 | 110 | #2 Final Four (out) |
| 14 | Auburn Tigers | 0.25 | 110 | #2 Round of 32 (out) |
| 15 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.23 | 110 | #4 Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 0.23 | 110 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 17 | Texas Longhorns | 0.23 | 110 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 18 | UConn Huskies | 0.23 | 110 | #5 Round of 64 (out) |
| 19 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.22 | 110 | #4 Elite 8 (out) |
| 20 | LSU Tigers | 0.22 | 110 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 21 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.21 | 110 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 22 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 0.21 | 110 | #11 Round of 64 (out) |
| 23 | San Francisco Dons | 0.20 | 110 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 24 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.20 | 110 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 25 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.19 | 110 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2022-03-13) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.