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womens · season 2014

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2014-04-09 teams rated 341 cutoffs in the walk 84
womens 2014: AdjOE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Saint Mary's 4. Toledo 5. Iowa State1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Iowa State 4. Saint Mary's 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Iowa State 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Iowa State 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Iowa State 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Iowa State 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Iowa State 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Iowa State 4. Duke 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Iowa State 4. Duke 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Iowa State 4. Notre Dame 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Iowa State 4. Notre Dame 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Iowa State 4. Notre Dame 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Iowa State 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Iowa State 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Stanford 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Stanford 5. Iowa State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Iowa State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Notre Dame 4. Duke 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Notre Dame 4. Duke 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Notre Dame 4. Duke 5. Utah Valley1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Notre Dame 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Notre Dame 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Utah Valley 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Maryland 5. Utah Valley1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Maryland 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Maryland 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Maryland 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Toledo 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Toledo 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Toledo 4. Stanford 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Toledo 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Stanford 5. Toledo1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Toledo 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Toledo 4. Maryland 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Toledo 5. Utah Valley1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Utah Valley 5. Toledo1. LIU Brooklyn 2. Bryant 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Toledo1. Bryant 2. LIU Brooklyn 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Maryland1. Harvard 2. Northern Kentucky 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Maryland1. Harvard 2. Northern Kentucky 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Maryland1. Harvard 2. Northern Kentucky 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Harvard 3. Northern Kentucky 4. Notre Dame 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Harvard 4. Maryland 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Harvard 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Maryland 4. Stanford 5. Baylor
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 84 cutoffs from 2013-12-17 to 2014-04-09. Axis spans 0.73 to 1.63. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The shortest drawn line covers 14 of the 84 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2014-01-25, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Harvard
  • Northern Kentucky
  • UConn
  • Notre Dame
  • Maryland
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjOE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Harvard Crimson 1.61 1 —
2 Northern Kentucky Norse 1.61 1 —
3 UConn Huskies 1.31 71 Champion
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1.27 71 Title game (out)
5 Maryland Terrapins 1.23 71 Final Four (out)
6 Stanford Cardinal 1.21 71 Final Four (out)
7 Bryant Bulldogs 1.20 3 —
8 Baylor Bears 1.19 71 Elite 8 (out)
9 Duke Blue Devils 1.19 71 Round of 32 (out)
10 NC State Wolfpack 1.18 71 Round of 64 (out)
11 Louisville Cardinals 1.17 71 Elite 8 (out)
12 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 1.17 71 Sweet 16 (out)
13 Iowa State Cyclones 1.17 71 Round of 64 (out)
14 DePaul Blue Demons 1.16 71 Sweet 16 (out)
15 South Carolina Gamecocks 1.15 71 Sweet 16 (out)
16 Toledo Rockets 1.15 71 —
17 Saint Mary's Gaels 1.15 71 —
18 Iowa Hawkeyes 1.14 71 Round of 32 (out)
19 LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds 1.14 3 —
20 Oregon Ducks 1.14 71 —
21 West Virginia Mountaineers 1.14 71 Round of 32 (out)
22 Utah Valley Wolverines 1.13 71 —
23 Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 1.13 71 —
24 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1.13 71 Round of 32 (out)
25 Oklahoma Sooners 1.12 71 Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2014-03-22) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.