womens · season 2015
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 73 cutoffs from
2014-12-20 to 2015-03-10.
Axis spans 0.89 to 3.43.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
Series: smoothed (causal EWMA).
The shortest drawn line covers
19 of the 73 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only
after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2015-01-24, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- UNC Wilmington
- Wofford
- UConn
- South Carolina
- San Diego
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjOE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington Seahawks | 3.43 | 19 | — |
| 2 | Wofford Terriers | 3.40 | 29 | — |
| 3 | UConn Huskies | 1.34 | 73 | Champion |
| 4 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 1.20 | 73 | Final Four (out) |
| 5 | San Diego Toreros | 1.19 | 70 | — |
| 6 | Maryland Terrapins | 1.18 | 73 | Final Four (out) |
| 7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.18 | 73 | Title game (out) |
| 8 | Baylor Bears | 1.17 | 73 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 9 | Bryant Bulldogs | 1.15 | 73 | — |
| 10 | Little Rock Trojans | 1.14 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 11 | Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 1.14 | 73 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 12 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.14 | 73 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 13 | Stanford Cardinal | 1.14 | 73 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 14 | South Florida Bulls | 1.13 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 15 | Drake Bulldogs | 1.13 | 73 | — |
| 16 | Washington Huskies | 1.12 | 73 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 17 | Princeton Tigers | 1.12 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 18 | Colorado State Rams | 1.12 | 73 | — |
| 19 | Creighton Bluejays | 1.12 | 73 | — |
| 20 | DePaul Blue Demons | 1.11 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 21 | Villanova Wildcats | 1.11 | 73 | — |
| 22 | Sacramento State Hornets | 1.11 | 73 | — |
| 23 | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 1.10 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 24 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 1.10 | 73 | — |
| 25 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.10 | 73 | Round of 32 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2015-03-10) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.