womens · season 2025
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 100 cutoffs from
2024-12-07 to 2025-04-06.
Axis spans 1.00 to 1.31.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
Series: smoothed (causal EWMA).
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2025-01-24, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- UConn
- South Carolina
- TCU
- UCLA
- Texas
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjOE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UConn Huskies | 1.29 | 86 | Champion |
| 2 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 1.27 | 86 | Title game (out) |
| 3 | TCU Horned Frogs | 1.25 | 86 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 4 | UCLA Bruins | 1.23 | 86 | Final Four (out) |
| 5 | Texas Longhorns | 1.23 | 86 | Final Four (out) |
| 6 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 1.21 | 86 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 7 | USC Trojans | 1.20 | 86 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 8 | Kansas State Wildcats | 1.20 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 9 | Florida State Seminoles | 1.20 | 86 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.20 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 11 | Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 1.20 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 12 | LSU Tigers | 1.19 | 86 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 13 | Maryland Terrapins | 1.19 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 14 | NC State Wolfpack | 1.18 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 15 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.18 | 86 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1.17 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 17 | Iowa State Cyclones | 1.17 | 86 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 18 | Creighton Bluejays | 1.17 | 86 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 19 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 1.17 | 86 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.17 | 86 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 21 | Baylor Bears | 1.16 | 86 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 22 | Michigan Wolverines | 1.16 | 86 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 23 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 1.16 | 86 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 24 | Kentucky Wildcats | 1.16 | 86 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 25 | Duke Blue Devils | 1.16 | 86 | Elite 8 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2025-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.