cbb·system

womens · season 2025

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2025-04-06 teams rated 362 cutoffs in the walk 130
womens 2025: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Notre Dame 2. USC 3. South Carolina 4. Oklahoma 5. Vanderbilt1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Notre Dame 4. Vanderbilt 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Vanderbilt 4. Texas 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Notre Dame 3. USC 4. Oklahoma 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Notre Dame 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. TCU1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. Michigan State 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Kansas State 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Kansas State 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. Kansas State 4. UConn 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. Kansas State 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Kansas State1. South Carolina 2. Kansas State 3. Texas 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. Kansas State 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. Kansas State 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. Kansas State1. Texas 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Kansas State 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. Kansas State1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. Kansas State1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. USC1. Texas 2. South Carolina 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. USC1. Texas 2. UConn 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Kansas State1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Kansas State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Kansas State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. USC 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Kansas State1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. USC 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Notre Dame 5. USC
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 130 cutoffs from 2024-11-20 to 2025-04-06. Axis spans 0.18 to 0.67. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2025-01-24, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • South Carolina
  • UConn
  • Texas
  • USC
  • UCLA
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.62 113 Title game (out)
2 UConn Huskies 0.62 113 Champion
3 Texas Longhorns 0.56 113 Final Four (out)
4 USC Trojans 0.55 113 Elite 8 (out)
5 UCLA Bruins 0.54 113 Final Four (out)
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.53 113 Sweet 16 (out)
7 Duke Blue Devils 0.52 113 Elite 8 (out)
8 TCU Horned Frogs 0.49 113 Elite 8 (out)
9 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.46 113 Round of 32 (out)
10 Kansas State Wildcats 0.45 113 Sweet 16 (out)
11 Ole Miss Rebels 0.45 113 Sweet 16 (out)
12 LSU Tigers 0.44 113 Elite 8 (out)
13 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.43 113 Sweet 16 (out)
14 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.43 113 Round of 32 (out)
15 Oklahoma Sooners 0.42 113 Sweet 16 (out)
16 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.41 113 Round of 32 (out)
17 Kentucky Wildcats 0.41 113 Round of 32 (out)
18 Baylor Bears 0.41 113 Round of 32 (out)
19 NC State Wolfpack 0.41 113 Sweet 16 (out)
20 Vanderbilt Commodores 0.40 113 Round of 64 (out)
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.39 113 Round of 32 (out)
22 Michigan Wolverines 0.38 113 Round of 32 (out)
23 Michigan State Spartans 0.37 113 Round of 32 (out)
24 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.37 113 Sweet 16 (out)
25 Utah Utes 0.37 113 Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2025-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.