cbb·system

womens · season 2018

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2018-04-01 teams rated 350 cutoffs in the walk 123
womens 2018: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Texas 4. Baylor 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Louisville 4. Mississippi State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Louisville 3. Baylor 4. Mississippi State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Louisville 4. Mississippi State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Louisville 4. Mississippi State 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. Mississippi State 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. Mississippi State 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. Mississippi State 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Texas1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 123 cutoffs from 2017-11-24 to 2018-04-01. Axis spans 0.09 to 0.71. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2018-01-21, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • Baylor
  • Mississippi State
  • Oregon
  • Notre Dame
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.69 108 Final Four (out)
2 Baylor Bears 0.59 108 Final Four (out)
3 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.52 108 Title game (out)
4 Oregon Ducks 0.49 108 Final Four (advanced)
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.48 108 Champion
6 Louisville Cardinals 0.45 108 Final Four (out)
7 Texas Longhorns 0.43 108 Final Four (out)
8 UCLA Bruins 0.41 108 Final Four (advanced)
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.40 108 Final Four (advanced)
10 Florida State Seminoles 0.39 108 Round of 32 (out)
11 Oregon State Beavers 0.38 108 Final Four (advanced)
12 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.37 108 Round of 32 (out)
13 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.36 108 Round of 32 (out)
14 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.35 108 Round of 32 (out)
15 Stanford Cardinal 0.35 108 Final Four (out)
16 Green Bay Phoenix 0.34 108 Round of 64 (out)
17 South Florida Bulls 0.34 108 Round of 64 (out)
18 Maryland Terrapins 0.34 108 Round of 32 (out)
19 Texas A&M Aggies 0.33 108 Final Four (out)
20 DePaul Blue Demons 0.32 108 Round of 32 (out)
21 Duke Blue Devils 0.32 108 Final Four (out)
22 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.31 108 Round of 32 (out)
23 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.30 108 —
24 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 0.30 108 Round of 64 (out)
25 NC State Wolfpack 0.30 108 Final Four (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2018-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.