cbb·system

womens · season 2021

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2021-04-04 teams rated 345 cutoffs in the walk 102
womens 2021: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. NC State 5. Washington State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Indiana 5. NC State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. Indiana1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. NC State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. Louisville1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Ohio State 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Baylor 5. Ohio State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Baylor 5. Ohio State1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Ohio State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Ohio State1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. Oregon 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. Arizona 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Arizona 4. UCLA 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. South Carolina 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. South Carolina 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Arizona 4. UConn 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Arizona 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. UCLA 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. UCLA 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. UCLA 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. UCLA 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Maryland 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Maryland 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Maryland 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Maryland 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 102 cutoffs from 2020-12-13 to 2021-04-04. Axis spans 0.01 to 0.80. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2021-02-23, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Stanford
  • UConn
  • UCLA
  • Baylor
  • South Carolina
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Stanford Cardinal 0.67 91 Champion
2 UConn Huskies 0.53 91 Final Four (out)
3 UCLA Bruins 0.50 91 Round of 32 (out)
4 Baylor Bears 0.49 91 Final Four (advanced)
5 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.49 91 Final Four (out)
6 Oregon Ducks 0.49 91 Final Four (out)
7 Maryland Terrapins 0.48 91 Final Four (out)
8 Arizona Wildcats 0.48 91 Title game (out)
9 Oregon State Beavers 0.43 91 Round of 32 (out)
10 Indiana Hoosiers 0.42 91 Final Four (advanced)
11 NC State Wolfpack 0.38 91 Final Four (out)
12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.38 91 Round of 64 (out)
13 Louisville Cardinals 0.37 91 Final Four (advanced)
14 Washington State Cougars 0.35 91 Round of 64 (out)
15 Texas A&M Aggies 0.35 91 Final Four (out)
16 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.35 91 Round of 64 (out)
17 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.34 91 Round of 32 (out)
18 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.34 91 Round of 32 (out)
19 Northwestern Wildcats 0.33 91 Round of 32 (out)
20 Michigan Wolverines 0.33 91 Final Four (out)
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.33 91 Final Four (out)
22 Arkansas Razorbacks 0.33 91 Round of 64 (out)
23 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.33 91 —
24 Colorado Buffaloes 0.31 91 —
25 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.31 91 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-21) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.