cbb·system

womens · season 2021

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2021-04-04 teams rated 345 cutoffs in the walk 78
womens 2021: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Arizona1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Baylor1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. UCLA 4. Baylor 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. UCLA 5. Maryland1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UCLA1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. UConn 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 78 cutoffs from 2021-02-24 to 2021-04-04. Axis spans 0.28 to 0.69. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Stanford
  • UConn
  • UCLA
  • Baylor
  • Maryland
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Stanford Cardinal 0.69 67 Champion
2 UConn Huskies 0.54 67 Final Four (out)
3 UCLA Bruins 0.53 67 Round of 32 (out)
4 Baylor Bears 0.52 67 Final Four (advanced)
5 Maryland Terrapins 0.49 67 Final Four (out)
6 Oregon Ducks 0.49 67 Final Four (out)
7 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.49 67 Final Four (out)
8 Arizona Wildcats 0.48 67 Title game (out)
9 NC State Wolfpack 0.42 67 Final Four (out)
10 Indiana Hoosiers 0.41 67 Final Four (advanced)
11 Louisville Cardinals 0.41 67 Final Four (advanced)
12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.39 67 Round of 64 (out)
13 Oregon State Beavers 0.39 67 Round of 32 (out)
14 Texas A&M Aggies 0.38 67 Final Four (out)
15 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.37 67 Round of 64 (out)
16 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.36 67 Round of 32 (out)
17 Michigan Wolverines 0.35 67 Final Four (out)
18 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.35 67 Round of 32 (out)
19 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.34 67 —
20 Washington State Cougars 0.34 67 Round of 64 (out)
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.33 67 Final Four (out)
22 Iowa State Cyclones 0.32 67 Round of 32 (out)
23 Colorado Buffaloes 0.32 67 —
24 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.32 67 Round of 32 (out)
25 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.31 67 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-21) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.