cbb·system

womens · season 2021

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2021-04-04 teams rated 345 cutoffs in the walk 78
womens 2021: AdjOE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. Ohio State 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. Ohio State 5. Iowa1. Oregon 2. Stanford 3. Maryland 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Oregon 2. Stanford 3. Maryland 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Iowa1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Oregon 4. UCLA 5. Iowa1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. Oregon 5. Iowa1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Stanford 2. Maryland 3. UCLA 4. Iowa 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Oregon1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. Oregon State1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. Oregon 5. UConn1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Maryland 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. Oregon
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 78 cutoffs from 2021-01-07 to 2021-04-04. Axis spans 1.06 to 1.35. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2021-02-23, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Maryland
  • Stanford
  • Iowa
  • Oregon
  • Oregon State
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjOE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Maryland Terrapins 1.30 67 Final Four (out)
2 Stanford Cardinal 1.29 67 Champion
3 Iowa Hawkeyes 1.27 67 Final Four (out)
4 Oregon Ducks 1.22 67 Final Four (out)
5 Oregon State Beavers 1.21 67 Round of 32 (out)
6 UCLA Bruins 1.21 67 Round of 32 (out)
7 UConn Huskies 1.20 67 Final Four (out)
8 Arkansas Razorbacks 1.19 67 Round of 64 (out)
9 Louisville Cardinals 1.19 67 Final Four (advanced)
10 Iowa State Cyclones 1.18 67 Round of 32 (out)
11 Baylor Bears 1.17 67 Final Four (advanced)
12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1.17 67 Round of 64 (out)
13 NC State Wolfpack 1.17 67 Final Four (out)
14 South Carolina Gamecocks 1.16 67 Final Four (out)
15 Alabama Crimson Tide 1.16 67 Round of 32 (out)
16 Michigan Wolverines 1.14 67 Final Four (out)
17 Kentucky Wildcats 1.14 67 Round of 32 (out)
18 Missouri Tigers 1.14 67 —
19 Texas A&M Aggies 1.14 67 Final Four (out)
20 Gonzaga Bulldogs 1.14 67 Round of 64 (out)
21 Ohio State Buckeyes 1.13 67 —
22 Indiana Hoosiers 1.13 67 Final Four (advanced)
23 Oklahoma Sooners 1.13 67 —
24 Central Michigan Chippewas 1.12 67 Round of 64 (out)
25 West Virginia Mountaineers 1.12 67 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-21) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.