womens · season 2022
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 98 cutoffs from
2021-12-11 to 2022-04-04.
Axis spans 1.02 to 1.27.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
Series: smoothed (causal EWMA).
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2022-01-30, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Iowa
- NC State
- Stanford
- Iowa State
- Baylor
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjOE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.21 | 85 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 2 | NC State Wolfpack | 1.21 | 85 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 3 | Stanford Cardinal | 1.20 | 85 | Final Four (out) |
| 4 | Iowa State Cyclones | 1.20 | 85 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 5 | Baylor Bears | 1.19 | 85 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 6 | Utah Utes | 1.18 | 85 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 7 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 1.18 | 85 | Champion |
| 8 | UConn Huskies | 1.17 | 85 | Title game (out) |
| 9 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 1.16 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 10 | Maryland Terrapins | 1.16 | 85 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 11 | DePaul Blue Demons | 1.16 | 85 | Play-in (out) |
| 12 | BYU Cougars | 1.15 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 13 | Louisville Cardinals | 1.15 | 85 | Final Four (out) |
| 14 | Creighton Bluejays | 1.14 | 85 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 15 | Oregon Ducks | 1.13 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 16 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 1.13 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 17 | Texas Longhorns | 1.13 | 85 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 18 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.12 | 85 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 19 | Kentucky Wildcats | 1.12 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 1.12 | 85 | — |
| 21 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1.11 | 85 | Round of 64 (out) |
| 22 | Michigan Wolverines | 1.11 | 85 | Elite 8 (out) |
| 23 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1.11 | 85 | Round of 32 (out) |
| 24 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1.10 | 85 | Sweet 16 (out) |
| 25 | Missouri Tigers | 1.10 | 85 | — |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2022-03-13) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.