cbb·system

Missouri State Lady Bears

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2020

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.11 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.85 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.25 points per possession 0.18
PACE 70.49 possessions per game 4.47

At season 2020's latest cutoff (2020-03-12 18:00), with 29 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Missouri State AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2020. Axis spans -0.14 to 0.67 over 107 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2020

SeasonWLPct
2020264 0.867

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbMissouri State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2020-03-13 2020 TBD @ Missouri State N canceled non_d1
2020-03-07 2020 Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State 61–72 regular
2020-03-06 2020 Valparaiso @ Missouri State 70–85 regular
2020-03-01 2020 Missouri State @ Bradley 69–66 regular
2020-02-28 2020 Missouri State @ Illinois State 66–78 regular
2020-02-23 2020 Indiana State @ Missouri State 58–82 regular
2020-02-22 2020 Evansville @ Missouri State 62–76 regular
2020-02-15 2020 Southern Illinois @ Missouri State 57–88 regular
2020-02-09 2020 Missouri State @ Drake 89–83 regular
2020-02-08 2020 Missouri State @ Northern Iowa 66–55 regular
2020-02-02 2020 Illinois State @ Missouri State 74–87 regular
2020-02-01 2020 Bradley @ Missouri State 56–90 regular
2020-01-26 2020 Missouri State @ Evansville 81–55 regular
2020-01-25 2020 Missouri State @ Indiana State 76–55 regular
2020-01-18 2020 Missouri State @ Southern Illinois 68–70 regular
2020-01-12 2020 Northern Iowa @ Missouri State 66–80 regular
2020-01-11 2020 Drake @ Missouri State 67–69 regular
2020-01-05 2020 Missouri State @ Valparaiso 81–68 regular
2020-01-03 2020 Missouri State @ Loyola Chicago 74–72 regular
2019-12-31 2020 William Jewell @ Missouri State 39–111 non_d1
2019-12-21 2020 Missouri State @ Gonzaga 52–64 regular
2019-12-15 2020 Missouri @ Missouri State 72–79 regular
2019-12-05 2020 Wichita State @ Missouri State 55–68 regular
2019-12-01 2020 Kansas City @ Missouri State 58–83 regular
2019-11-26 2020 Missouri State @ South Dakota 74–66 regular
2019-11-23 2020 Santa Clara @ Missouri State 64–71 regular
2019-11-17 2020 Missouri State @ Oregon State 69–80 regular
2019-11-15 2020 Missouri State @ Oklahoma 96–90 regular
2019-11-10 2020 Missouri State @ Boise State 72–69 regular
2019-11-09 2020 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Missouri State 51–79 regular
2019-11-05 2020 Missouri State @ Minnesota 77–69 regular