cbb·system

Arizona State Sun Devils

mens Pac-12 canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2016

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.11 points per possession 0.12
DE 1.02 points per possession 0.12
ME 0.10 points per possession 0.17
PACE 67.47 possessions per game 4.79

At season 2016's latest cutoff (2016-04-05 01:19), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Series smoothed · raw fit

Warm-up shown · hide

AdjME (points per possession)
Arizona State AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibratedD-I average -0.00 (Apr 05)Dec 18, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.32 (2σ) 10 games playedDec 19, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 10 games playedDec 20, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 21, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.32 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 22, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 23, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 24, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 26, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 26, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 28, 2015 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 29, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 13 games playedDec 30, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 13 games playedDec 31, 2015 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 01, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 02, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 03, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 04, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 05, 2016 AdjME 0.16 ± 0.33 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 06, 2016 AdjME 0.16 ± 0.33 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 07, 2016 AdjME 0.16 ± 0.34 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 08, 2016 AdjME 0.16 ± 0.33 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 09, 2016 AdjME 0.16 ± 0.33 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 10, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 11, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 12, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 13, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 14, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.33 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 15, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 16, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 17, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.33 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 18, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 19, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 20, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.35 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 21, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 22, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 23, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 24, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 25, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 26, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 27, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.33 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 28, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 29, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 30, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 31, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 21 games playedFeb 01, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.35 (2σ) 21 games playedFeb 02, 2016 AdjME 0.15 ± 0.34 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 03, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 04, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 05, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 06, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 07, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 07, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 09, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 10, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.35 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 11, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 12, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 13, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 14, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.35 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 15, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 17, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.34 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 18, 2016 AdjME 0.14 ± 0.35 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 20, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 21, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 22, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.35 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 23, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 24, 2016 AdjME 0.13 ± 0.34 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 25, 2016 AdjME 0.12 ± 0.34 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 26, 2016 AdjME 0.12 ± 0.34 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 27, 2016 AdjME 0.12 ± 0.34 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 28, 2016 AdjME 0.11 ± 0.34 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 29, 2016 AdjME 0.11 ± 0.34 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 01, 2016 AdjME 0.11 ± 0.34 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 03, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 04, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 05, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 06, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 07, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 08, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 09, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 10, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 11, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.34 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 12, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 13, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 13, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 15, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 16, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 17, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.34 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 18, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 19, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 20, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 21, 2016 AdjME 0.11 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 22, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 23, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 24, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 25, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 26, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 27, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 28, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 30, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 31, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 31, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedApr 02, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedApr 03, 2016 AdjME 0.09 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games playedApr 05, 2016 AdjME 0.10 ± 0.35 (2σ) 32 games played
Walk-forward cutoff, season 2016
  • AdjME (smoothed)
  • ±2σ, the model's own uncertainty
  • warm-up gate (18 games)
  • D-I average at the season's latest cutoff
AdjME at each of 104 walk-forward cutoffs (train_cutoff_at) in season 2016. Hover or tap for the value, its ±2σ and games played at that cutoff. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2016

SeasonWLPct
20161517 0.469

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdArizona State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2016-03-10 2016 Arizona State @ Oregon State N 66–75 conf_tournament
2016-03-06 2016 California @ Arizona State 68–65 regular
2016-03-04 2016 Stanford @ Arizona State 64–74 regular
2016-02-28 2016 Arizona State @ Colorado 69–79 regular
2016-02-26 2016 Arizona State @ Utah 46–81 regular
2016-02-18 2016 Arizona State @ Arizona 61–99 regular
2016-02-15 2016 UCLA @ Arizona State 78–65 regular
2016-02-13 2016 USC @ Arizona State 67–74 regular
2016-02-06 2016 Arizona State @ Washington State 67–55 regular
2016-02-04 2016 Arizona State @ Washington 83–95 regular
2016-02-01 2016 Oregon @ Arizona State 91–74 regular
2016-01-29 2016 Oregon State @ Arizona State 68–86 regular
2016-01-24 2016 Arizona State @ Stanford 73–75 regular
2016-01-22 2016 Arizona State @ California 70–75 regular
2016-01-17 2016 Washington @ Arizona State 89–85 regular
2016-01-15 2016 Washington State @ Arizona State 73–84 regular
2016-01-09 2016 Arizona State @ UCLA 74–81 regular
2016-01-08 2016 Arizona State @ USC 65–75 regular
2016-01-03 2016 Arizona @ Arizona State 94–82 regular
2015-12-29 2016 Cal State Bakersfield @ Arizona State 59–75 regular
2015-12-22 2016 Stephen F. Austin @ Arizona State 73–80 regular
2015-12-19 2016 Houston Christian @ Arizona State 79–98 regular
2015-12-17 2016 Arizona State @ UNLV 66–56 regular
2015-12-12 2016 Arizona State @ Kentucky 58–72 regular
2015-12-06 2016 Texas A&M @ Arizona State 54–67 regular
2015-12-03 2016 Arizona State @ Creighton 79–77 regular
2015-11-29 2016 UC Santa Barbara @ Arizona State 68–70 regular
2015-11-25 2016 Marquette @ Arizona State N 78–73 regular
2015-11-24 2016 NC State @ Arizona State N 76–79 regular
2015-11-19 2016 Kennesaw State @ Arizona State 53–91 regular
2015-11-17 2016 Belmont @ Arizona State 74–83 regular
2015-11-14 2016 Sacramento State @ Arizona State 66–63 regular