womens · season 2015

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2015-03-10 teams rated 318 cutoffs in the walk 73

AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 73 cutoffs from 2014-12-20 to 2015-03-10. Axis spans 0.51 to 0.84. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The shortest drawn line covers 70 of the 73 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2015-01-24, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide

Jackson State
Indiana State
UConn
UT Arlington
Long Beach State
20 more, drawn as grey context

Readout

Hover or tap a station to move this readout; it starts at the pre-tournament cutoff.

cutoff 2015-03-10 rated here 25 AdjDE pts / possession

1 Jackson State 0.549
2 Indiana State 0.606
3 UConn 0.637
4 UT Arlington 0.674
5 Long Beach State 0.705
6 Northern Illinois 0.713
7 Northern Arizona 0.720
8 South Carolina 0.731
9 North Texas 0.742
10 Notre Dame 0.743
11 Murray State 0.747
12 Middle Tennessee 0.754
13 Oregon State 0.756
14 Louisville 0.760
15 Rutgers 0.762
16 Tennessee 0.764
17 Princeton 0.765
18 Georgia 0.767
19 Florida State 0.768
20 Little Rock 0.772
21 Wichita State 0.772
22 George Washington 0.772
23 Duke 0.773
24 Nebraska 0.776
25 California 0.779

The top 25 going into the tournament

#	Team	AdjDE	Cutoffs rated	Postseason
1	Jackson State Lady Tigers	0.55	73	—
2	Indiana State Sycamores	0.61	73	—
3	UConn Huskies	0.64	73	Champion
4	UT Arlington Mavericks	0.67	73	—
5	Long Beach State Beach	0.71	73	—
6	Northern Illinois Huskies	0.71	73	—
7	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	0.72	73	—
8	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.73	73	Final Four (out)
9	North Texas Mean Green	0.74	73	—
10	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.74	73	Title game (out)
11	Murray State Racers	0.75	70	—
12	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	0.75	73	—
13	Oregon State Beavers	0.76	73	Round of 32 (out)
14	Louisville Cardinals	0.76	73	Sweet 16 (out)
15	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	0.76	73	Round of 32 (out)
16	Tennessee Lady Volunteers	0.76	73	Elite 8 (out)
17	Princeton Tigers	0.76	73	Round of 32 (out)
18	Georgia Lady Bulldogs	0.77	73	—
19	Florida State Seminoles	0.77	73	Elite 8 (out)
20	Little Rock Trojans	0.77	73	Round of 32 (out)
21	Wichita State Shockers	0.77	73	Round of 64 (out)
22	George Washington Revolutionaries	0.77	73	Round of 64 (out)
23	Duke Blue Devils	0.77	73	Sweet 16 (out)
24	Nebraska Cornhuskers	0.78	73	Round of 64 (out)
25	California Golden Bears	0.78	73	Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2015-03-10) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.