cbb·system

womens · season 2021

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2021-04-04 teams rated 345 cutoffs in the walk 78
womens 2021: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Stanford 2. Arizona 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. South Carolina
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 78 cutoffs from 2021-02-24 to 2021-04-04. Axis spans 0.60 to 0.80. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Stanford
  • Arizona
  • UConn
  • Baylor
  • South Carolina
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Stanford Cardinal 0.60 67 Champion
2 Arizona Wildcats 0.64 67 Title game (out)
3 UConn Huskies 0.66 67 Final Four (out)
4 Baylor Bears 0.66 67 Final Four (advanced)
5 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.67 67 Final Four (out)
6 UCLA Bruins 0.68 67 Round of 32 (out)
7 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.71 67 Round of 32 (out)
8 Indiana Hoosiers 0.72 67 Final Four (advanced)
9 Oregon Ducks 0.73 67 Final Four (out)
10 UCF Knights 0.74 67 Round of 64 (out)
11 Northwestern Wildcats 0.74 67 Round of 32 (out)
12 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.75 67 Round of 32 (out)
13 NC State Wolfpack 0.75 67 Final Four (out)
14 Texas A&M Aggies 0.76 67 Final Four (out)
15 Colorado Buffaloes 0.76 67 —
16 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.77 67 Round of 32 (out)
17 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.77 67 Round of 64 (out)
18 Missouri State Lady Bears 0.77 67 Final Four (out)
19 LSU Tigers 0.77 67 —
20 Texas Longhorns 0.77 67 Final Four (advanced)
21 Washington State Cougars 0.77 67 Round of 64 (out)
22 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.78 67 Round of 64 (out)
23 Houston Cougars 0.78 67 —
24 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.78 67 —
25 Louisville Cardinals 0.78 67 Final Four (advanced)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-21) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.