womens · season 2024

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2024-04-07 teams rated 360 cutoffs in the walk 103

AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 103 cutoffs from 2023-12-10 to 2024-04-07. Axis spans 0.58 to 0.86. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2024-01-26, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide

South Carolina
UConn
Notre Dame
Duke
Kansas State
20 more, drawn as grey context

Readout

Hover or tap a station to move this readout; it starts at the pre-tournament cutoff.

cutoff 2024-03-17 rated here 25 AdjDE pts / possession

1 South Carolina 0.661
2 UConn 0.704
3 Notre Dame 0.705
4 Duke 0.708
5 Kansas State 0.710
6 UCLA 0.720
7 Ohio State 0.725
8 Baylor 0.729
9 Texas 0.730
10 West Virginia 0.731
11 Auburn 0.733
12 NC State 0.734
13 USC 0.749
14 Stanford 0.754
15 LSU 0.758
16 Texas A&M 0.764
17 Oregon State 0.765
18 Colorado 0.767
19 Ole Miss 0.768
20 Washington 0.785
21 Indiana 0.787
22 Arizona 0.787
23 Oklahoma 0.790
24 Utah 0.791
25 Marquette 0.792

The top 25 going into the tournament

#	Team	AdjDE	Cutoffs rated	Postseason
1	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.66	87	Champion
2	UConn Huskies	0.70	87	Final Four (out)
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.70	87	Sweet 16 (out)
4	Duke Blue Devils	0.71	87	Sweet 16 (out)
5	Kansas State Wildcats	0.71	87	Round of 32 (out)
6	UCLA Bruins	0.72	87	Sweet 16 (out)
7	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.72	87	Round of 32 (out)
8	Baylor Bears	0.73	87	Sweet 16 (out)
9	Texas Longhorns	0.73	87	Elite 8 (out)
10	West Virginia Mountaineers	0.73	87	Round of 32 (out)
11	Auburn Tigers	0.73	87	Play-in (out)
12	NC State Wolfpack	0.73	87	Final Four (out)
13	USC Trojans	0.75	87	Elite 8 (out)
14	Stanford Cardinal	0.75	87	Sweet 16 (out)
15	LSU Tigers	0.76	87	Elite 8 (out)
16	Texas A&M Aggies	0.76	87	Round of 64 (out)
17	Oregon State Beavers	0.76	87	Elite 8 (out)
18	Colorado Buffaloes	0.77	87	Sweet 16 (out)
19	Ole Miss Rebels	0.77	87	Round of 32 (out)
20	Washington Huskies	0.78	87	—
21	Indiana Hoosiers	0.79	87	Sweet 16 (out)
22	Arizona Wildcats	0.79	87	Round of 64 (out)
23	Oklahoma Sooners	0.79	87	Round of 32 (out)
24	Utah Utes	0.79	87	Round of 32 (out)
25	Marquette Golden Eagles	0.79	87	Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2024-03-17) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.