womens · season 2024

The season's top 100 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2024-04-07 teams rated 360 cutoffs in the walk 103

AdjDE (points allowed per possession)

Walk-forward cutoff, season 2024

other ranked teams
NCAA tournament starts
D-I average

AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 103 cutoffs from 2024-01-27 to 2024-04-07. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). Warm-up: show · hidden

South Carolina
UConn
Notre Dame
Duke
Kansas State
95 more, drawn as grey context

Readout

Hover or tap a station to move this readout; it starts at the pre-tournament cutoff.

cutoff 2024-03-17 rated here 25 AdjDE pts / possession

1 South Carolina 0.661
2 UConn 0.704
3 Notre Dame 0.705
4 Duke 0.708
5 Kansas State 0.710
6 UCLA 0.720
7 Ohio State 0.725
8 Baylor 0.729
9 Texas 0.730
10 West Virginia 0.731
11 Auburn 0.733
12 NC State 0.734
13 USC 0.749
14 Stanford 0.754
15 LSU 0.758
16 Texas A&M 0.764
17 Oregon State 0.765
18 Colorado 0.767
19 Ole Miss 0.768
20 Washington 0.785
21 Indiana 0.787
22 Arizona 0.787
23 Oklahoma 0.790
24 Utah 0.791
25 Marquette 0.792

The top 100 going into the tournament

#	Team	AdjDE	Cutoffs rated	Postseason
1	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.66	87	Champion
2	UConn Huskies	0.70	87	Final Four (out)
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.70	87	Sweet 16 (out)
4	Duke Blue Devils	0.71	87	Sweet 16 (out)
5	Kansas State Wildcats	0.71	87	Round of 32 (out)
6	UCLA Bruins	0.72	87	Sweet 16 (out)
7	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.72	87	Round of 32 (out)
8	Baylor Bears	0.73	87	Sweet 16 (out)
9	Texas Longhorns	0.73	87	Elite 8 (out)
10	West Virginia Mountaineers	0.73	87	Round of 32 (out)
11	Auburn Tigers	0.73	87	Play-in (out)
12	NC State Wolfpack	0.73	87	Final Four (out)
13	USC Trojans	0.75	87	Elite 8 (out)
14	Stanford Cardinal	0.75	87	Sweet 16 (out)
15	LSU Tigers	0.76	87	Elite 8 (out)
16	Texas A&M Aggies	0.76	87	Round of 64 (out)
17	Oregon State Beavers	0.76	87	Elite 8 (out)
18	Colorado Buffaloes	0.77	87	Sweet 16 (out)
19	Ole Miss Rebels	0.77	87	Round of 32 (out)
20	Washington Huskies	0.78	87	—
21	Indiana Hoosiers	0.79	87	Sweet 16 (out)
22	Arizona Wildcats	0.79	87	Round of 64 (out)
23	Oklahoma Sooners	0.79	87	Round of 32 (out)
24	Utah Utes	0.79	87	Round of 32 (out)
25	Marquette Golden Eagles	0.79	87	Round of 64 (out)
26	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.79	87	Round of 32 (out)
27	Louisville Cardinals	0.79	87	Round of 64 (out)
28	Nebraska Cornhuskers	0.80	87	Round of 32 (out)
29	Miami Hurricanes	0.81	87	—
30	Washington State Cougars	0.81	87	—
31	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.81	87	Title game (out)
32	Michigan Wolverines	0.81	87	Round of 64 (out)
33	Princeton Tigers	0.82	87	Round of 64 (out)
34	Georgetown Hoyas	0.82	87	—
35	Maryland Terrapins	0.82	87	Round of 64 (out)
36	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.82	87	Round of 32 (out)
37	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.82	87	Round of 64 (out)
38	Virginia Tech Hokies	0.82	87	Round of 32 (out)
39	Seton Hall Pirates	0.83	87	—
40	Tennessee Lady Volunteers	0.83	87	Round of 32 (out)
41	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	0.83	87	Round of 32 (out)
42	Michigan State Spartans	0.83	87	Round of 64 (out)
43	Gonzaga Bulldogs	0.83	87	Sweet 16 (out)
44	Kansas Jayhawks	0.84	87	Round of 32 (out)
45	Villanova Wildcats	0.84	87	—
46	Florida State Seminoles	0.84	87	Round of 64 (out)
47	Iowa State Cyclones	0.84	87	Round of 32 (out)
48	VCU Rams	0.84	87	—
49	Old Dominion Monarchs	0.84	87	—
50	Stony Brook Seawolves	0.84	87	—
51	Portland Pilots	0.84	87	Round of 64 (out)
52	Penn State Lady Lions	0.84	87	—
53	Oklahoma State Cowgirls	0.84	87	—
54	Grand Canyon Lopes	0.84	87	—
55	UNLV Lady Rebels	0.84	87	Round of 64 (out)
56	Saint Joseph's Hawks	0.85	87	—
57	George Mason Patriots	0.85	87	—
58	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	0.85	87	Round of 64 (out)
59	Florida Gators	0.85	87	—
60	Eastern Washington Eagles	0.85	87	Round of 64 (out)
61	TCU Horned Frogs	0.86	87	—
62	Creighton Bluejays	0.86	87	Round of 32 (out)
63	Rhode Island Rams	0.86	87	—
64	Toledo Rockets	0.86	87	—
65	Syracuse Orange	0.86	87	Round of 32 (out)
66	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles	0.86	87	Round of 64 (out)
67	Texas Tech Lady Raiders	0.86	87	—
68	Arkansas Razorbacks	0.86	87	—
69	Ball State Cardinals	0.86	87	—
70	Virginia Cavaliers	0.86	87	—
71	Minnesota Golden Gophers	0.86	87	—
72	UCF Knights	0.86	87	—
73	California Golden Bears	0.86	87	—
74	Wisconsin Badgers	0.86	87	—
75	Providence Friars	0.86	87	—
76	Montana State Bobcats	0.86	87	—
77	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.87	87	—
78	St. John's Red Storm	0.87	87	—
79	Oregon Ducks	0.87	87	—
80	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	0.87	87	—
81	Georgia Lady Bulldogs	0.87	87	—
82	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.87	87	—
83	Purdue Boilermakers	0.87	87	—
84	Houston Cougars	0.87	87	—
85	Temple Owls	0.87	87	—
86	Rice Owls	0.88	87	Round of 64 (out)
87	UC Irvine Anteaters	0.88	87	Round of 64 (out)
88	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.88	87	—
89	BYU Cougars	0.88	87	—
90	Belmont Bruins	0.88	87	—
91	Boise State Broncos	0.88	87	—
92	Charlotte 49ers	0.88	87	—
93	Memphis Tigers	0.88	87	—
94	Green Bay Phoenix	0.88	87	Round of 64 (out)
95	UTSA Roadrunners	0.88	87	—
96	Boston College Eagles	0.88	87	—
97	Davidson Wildcats	0.88	87	—
98	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	0.88	87	—
99	East Carolina Pirates	0.88	87	—
100	Richmond Spiders	0.88	87	Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2024-03-17) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.