cbb·system

womens · season 2019

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2019-04-07 teams rated 351 cutoffs in the walk 101
womens 2019: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Mississippi State 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. Mississippi State 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. Mississippi State 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. Mississippi State 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. Oregon 2. UConn 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Oregon 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Oregon 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. Mississippi State 5. Baylor1. Notre Dame 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. UConn 2. Oregon 3. Notre Dame 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. Oregon 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Oregon 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. Oregon1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Notre Dame 2. Baylor 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Oregon 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. Oregon 4. UConn 5. Mississippi State
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 101 cutoffs from 2019-01-27 to 2019-04-07. Axis spans 0.24 to 0.58. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Baylor
  • Notre Dame
  • UConn
  • Oregon
  • Mississippi State
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Baylor Bears 0.56 88 Champion
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.55 88 Title game (out)
3 UConn Huskies 0.55 88 Final Four (out)
4 Oregon Ducks 0.54 88 Final Four (out)
5 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.53 88 Final Four (advanced)
6 Marquette Golden Eagles 0.45 88 Round of 32 (out)
7 Louisville Cardinals 0.44 88 Final Four (advanced)
8 Stanford Cardinal 0.43 88 Final Four (advanced)
9 Oregon State Beavers 0.40 88 Final Four (out)
10 Iowa State Cyclones 0.39 88 Round of 32 (out)
11 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.36 88 Final Four (advanced)
12 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.34 88 Final Four (out)
13 UCLA Bruins 0.33 88 Final Four (out)
14 NC State Wolfpack 0.32 88 Final Four (out)
15 Maryland Terrapins 0.32 88 Round of 32 (out)
16 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.32 88 Final Four (out)
17 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 0.31 88 Final Four (out)
18 Syracuse Orange 0.31 88 Round of 32 (out)
19 Kentucky Wildcats 0.31 88 Round of 32 (out)
20 Miami Hurricanes 0.30 88 Round of 32 (out)
21 Texas Longhorns 0.30 88 Round of 64 (out)
22 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.29 88 —
23 Missouri Tigers 0.29 88 Round of 32 (out)
24 DePaul Blue Demons 0.29 88 Round of 64 (out)
25 Texas A&M Aggies 0.29 88 Final Four (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2019-03-22) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.