cbb·system

womens · season 2024

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2024-04-07 teams rated 360 cutoffs in the walk 103
womens 2024: AdjOE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Utah 2. Gonzaga 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Stanford1. Gonzaga 2. Utah 3. UCLA 4. Stanford 5. South Carolina1. Utah 2. UCLA 3. Gonzaga 4. Stanford 5. South Carolina1. Gonzaga 2. UCLA 3. Utah 4. South Carolina 5. Stanford1. Utah 2. Stanford 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. Iowa1. Gonzaga 2. UCLA 3. South Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Utah1. Utah 2. South Carolina 3. Gonzaga 4. Stanford 5. UCLA1. Gonzaga 2. Stanford 3. Utah 4. South Carolina 5. Texas1. Gonzaga 2. Stanford 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Texas1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. Gonzaga 4. Utah 5. UCLA1. Gonzaga 2. Stanford 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. Stanford1. Gonzaga 2. Stanford 3. South Carolina 4. Texas 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. Gonzaga 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Iowa1. Stanford 2. Gonzaga 3. Iowa 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. UCLA 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. UConn 2. Gonzaga 3. Stanford 4. South Carolina 5. Iowa1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Iowa 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. UConn 2. Iowa 3. South Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. UConn 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. South Carolina 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Iowa 4. UCLA 5. Stanford1. Gonzaga 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Texas1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Iowa 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Iowa 3. South Carolina 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. UConn 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. UConn 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. Stanford 2. South Carolina 3. Iowa 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. Gonzaga 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. Stanford 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. South Carolina 2. Iowa 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. Gonzaga 5. UConn1. Iowa 2. Stanford 3. UConn 4. South Carolina 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. UConn 3. Stanford 4. Gonzaga 5. South Carolina1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. Iowa 2. Gonzaga 3. Stanford 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. Gonzaga 5. UConn1. Iowa 2. Stanford 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Texas1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Gonzaga 5. Stanford1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Gonzaga1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Texas1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Texas1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. Texas1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Stanford 4. Texas 5. UConn1. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Stanford 5. UConn
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 103 cutoffs from 2023-12-10 to 2024-04-07. Axis spans 1.04 to 1.34. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: raw fit. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2024-01-26, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Iowa
  • South Carolina
  • UConn
  • Stanford
  • Gonzaga
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjOE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Iowa Hawkeyes 1.32 87 Title game (out)
2 South Carolina Gamecocks 1.27 87 Champion
3 UConn Huskies 1.26 87 Final Four (out)
4 Stanford Cardinal 1.25 87 Sweet 16 (out)
5 Gonzaga Bulldogs 1.24 87 Sweet 16 (out)
6 Texas Longhorns 1.23 87 Elite 8 (out)
7 UCLA Bruins 1.22 87 Sweet 16 (out)
8 Utah Utes 1.22 87 Round of 32 (out)
9 Michigan State Spartans 1.20 87 Round of 64 (out)
10 LSU Tigers 1.20 87 Elite 8 (out)
11 Indiana Hoosiers 1.20 87 Sweet 16 (out)
12 Virginia Tech Hokies 1.20 87 Round of 32 (out)
13 USC Trojans 1.20 87 Elite 8 (out)
14 Creighton Bluejays 1.18 87 Round of 32 (out)
15 Colorado Buffaloes 1.17 87 Sweet 16 (out)
16 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 1.17 87 Round of 32 (out)
17 Ohio State Buckeyes 1.17 87 Round of 32 (out)
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1.16 87 Sweet 16 (out)
19 Oregon State Beavers 1.16 87 Elite 8 (out)
20 Penn State Lady Lions 1.16 87 —
21 UNLV Lady Rebels 1.15 87 Round of 64 (out)
22 Louisville Cardinals 1.15 87 Round of 64 (out)
23 Iowa State Cyclones 1.14 87 Round of 32 (out)
24 Illinois Fighting Illini 1.14 87 —
25 NC State Wolfpack 1.14 87 Final Four (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2024-03-17) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.