cbb·system

womens · season 2026

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2026-04-05 teams rated 363 cutoffs in the walk 100
womens 2026: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Michigan 2. UConn 3. USC 4. Iowa 5. Texas1. Michigan 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Iowa1. Michigan 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Iowa1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. Iowa 5. USC1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Iowa1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. Iowa1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. South Carolina 5. USC1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. USC 4. Texas 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Texas 3. Michigan 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Texas 3. Michigan 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. USC 3. Michigan 4. Texas 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. South Carolina 5. USC1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. USC 5. South Carolina1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. South Carolina 5. USC1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. Texas 4. South Carolina 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Michigan 3. South Carolina 4. Texas 5. Oklahoma1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Michigan 5. Oklahoma1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan 5. LSU1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan 5. USC1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Oklahoma1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. USC 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. USC 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Duke 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. Duke 5. UCLA1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. UCLA 4. South Carolina 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan1. UConn 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. Michigan
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 100 cutoffs from 2025-12-09 to 2026-04-05. Axis spans 0.57 to 0.82. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: raw fit. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2026-01-23, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • Texas
  • South Carolina
  • UCLA
  • Michigan
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.59 83 Final Four (out)
2 Texas Longhorns 0.65 83 Final Four (out)
3 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.67 83 Title game (out)
4 UCLA Bruins 0.67 83 Champion
5 Michigan Wolverines 0.69 83 Elite 8 (out)
6 Duke Blue Devils 0.69 83 Elite 8 (out)
7 LSU Tigers 0.69 83 Sweet 16 (out)
8 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.73 83 Round of 32 (out)
9 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.73 83 Round of 32 (out)
10 Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.73 83 Sweet 16 (out)
11 Oklahoma Sooners 0.74 83 Sweet 16 (out)
12 USC Trojans 0.74 83 Round of 32 (out)
13 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.74 83 Round of 32 (out)
14 TCU Horned Frogs 0.74 83 Elite 8 (out)
15 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.75 83 Sweet 16 (out)
16 Maryland Terrapins 0.76 83 Round of 32 (out)
17 Kentucky Wildcats 0.76 83 Sweet 16 (out)
18 Louisville Cardinals 0.76 83 Sweet 16 (out)
19 Texas Tech Lady Raiders 0.76 83 Round of 32 (out)
20 Baylor Bears 0.77 83 Round of 32 (out)
21 Oregon Ducks 0.77 83 Round of 32 (out)
22 Ole Miss Rebels 0.78 83 Round of 32 (out)
23 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.78 83 Play-in (out)
24 Washington Huskies 0.78 83 Round of 32 (out)
25 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.78 83 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2026-03-14) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.