cbb·system

womens · season 2014

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2014-04-09 teams rated 341 cutoffs in the walk 84
womens 2014: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Iowa State1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Iowa State1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Tennessee1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Tennessee 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Louisville 5. Tennessee1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Baylor 5. Tennessee1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Baylor 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Baylor 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Baylor 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Maryland1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Baylor 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Duke 5. Stanford1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Duke 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Duke 5. Baylor1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Baylor 5. Duke1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. Stanford 4. Baylor 5. Duke
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 84 cutoffs from 2013-12-17 to 2014-04-09. Axis spans 0.16 to 0.70. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2014-01-25, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • Notre Dame
  • Baylor
  • Maryland
  • Duke
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.67 71 Champion
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.55 71 Title game (out)
3 Baylor Bears 0.44 71 Elite 8 (out)
4 Maryland Terrapins 0.42 71 Final Four (out)
5 Duke Blue Devils 0.42 71 Round of 32 (out)
6 Stanford Cardinal 0.42 71 Final Four (out)
7 Louisville Cardinals 0.39 71 Elite 8 (out)
8 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.38 71 Sweet 16 (out)
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.38 71 Sweet 16 (out)
10 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.36 71 Round of 32 (out)
11 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.33 71 Elite 8 (out)
12 Texas A&M Aggies 0.31 71 Elite 8 (out)
13 Texas Longhorns 0.30 71 Round of 32 (out)
14 Kentucky Wildcats 0.30 71 Sweet 16 (out)
15 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.30 71 Round of 64 (out)
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.28 71 Round of 32 (out)
17 Oklahoma Sooners 0.27 71 Round of 64 (out)
18 Oregon State Beavers 0.27 71 Round of 32 (out)
19 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.27 71 Sweet 16 (out)
20 Wichita State Shockers 0.27 71 Round of 64 (out)
21 Chattanooga Mocs 0.27 71 Round of 64 (out)
22 Iowa State Cyclones 0.26 71 Round of 64 (out)
23 Purdue Boilermakers 0.26 71 Round of 32 (out)
24 Syracuse Orange 0.25 71 Round of 32 (out)
25 NC State Wolfpack 0.25 71 Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2014-03-22) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.