cbb·system

womens · season 2023

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2023-04-02 teams rated 361 cutoffs in the walk 94
womens 2023: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Virginia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Virginia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Virginia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Virginia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Baylor1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Stanford 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Texas 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. LSU 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Texas 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Texas 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. Texas 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. LSU 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. LSU 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. LSU 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Mississippi State 4. LSU 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. LSU 5. Mississippi State1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. LSU 5. Mississippi State1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. Notre Dame 4. LSU 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. LSU 4. Notre Dame 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. LSU 4. Notre Dame 5. Mississippi State1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Duke 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. LSU1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. Stanford 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. Stanford 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Ole Miss
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 94 cutoffs from 2022-12-10 to 2023-04-02. Axis spans 0.56 to 0.86. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2023-01-22, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • South Carolina
  • Duke
  • UConn
  • USC
  • Texas
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.64 81 Final Four (out)
2 Duke Blue Devils 0.65 81 Round of 32 (out)
3 UConn Huskies 0.70 81 Sweet 16 (out)
4 USC Trojans 0.71 81 Round of 64 (out)
5 Texas Longhorns 0.72 81 Round of 32 (out)
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.73 81 Sweet 16 (out)
7 Stanford Cardinal 0.73 81 Round of 32 (out)
8 Houston Cougars 0.74 81 —
9 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.74 81 Round of 32 (out)
10 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.74 81 Round of 32 (out)
11 LSU Tigers 0.75 81 Champion
12 Ole Miss Rebels 0.75 81 Sweet 16 (out)
13 Colorado Buffaloes 0.75 81 Sweet 16 (out)
14 Marquette Golden Eagles 0.75 81 Round of 64 (out)
15 Baylor Bears 0.75 81 Round of 32 (out)
16 Indiana Hoosiers 0.76 81 Round of 32 (out)
17 NC State Wolfpack 0.77 81 Round of 64 (out)
18 Washington State Cougars 0.78 81 Round of 64 (out)
19 Virginia Tech Hokies 0.78 81 Final Four (out)
20 Maryland Terrapins 0.78 81 Elite 8 (out)
21 Iowa State Cyclones 0.78 81 Round of 64 (out)
22 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.78 81 Round of 64 (out)
23 Princeton Tigers 0.78 81 Round of 32 (out)
24 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.78 81 Sweet 16 (out)
25 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.79 81 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2023-03-12) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.