cbb·system

mens · season 2023

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2023-04-04 teams rated 363 cutoffs in the walk 129
mens 2023: AdjOE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Marquette 2. Arizona 3. Gonzaga 4. Purdue 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Marquette 3. Arizona 4. Houston 5. Alabama1. Gonzaga 2. Arizona 3. Marquette 4. Alabama 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Marquette 3. Alabama 4. Houston 5. Purdue1. Marquette 2. Gonzaga 3. Alabama 4. Iowa 5. Arizona1. Marquette 2. Gonzaga 3. UConn 4. Houston 5. Alabama1. Gonzaga 2. Marquette 3. Houston 4. Purdue 5. UConn1. Houston 2. Marquette 3. Gonzaga 4. Purdue 5. Iowa1. Houston 2. Marquette 3. Iowa 4. Purdue 5. Gonzaga1. Houston 2. Marquette 3. Purdue 4. Kentucky 5. Iowa1. Houston 2. Purdue 3. Gonzaga 4. Marquette 5. Iowa1. Houston 2. Iowa 3. Purdue 4. Gonzaga 5. Baylor1. Houston 2. Gonzaga 3. Purdue 4. Marquette 5. Iowa1. Houston 2. Gonzaga 3. Baylor 4. Purdue 5. Utah State1. Houston 2. Gonzaga 3. Purdue 4. UConn 5. Baylor1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Purdue 4. Xavier 5. Marquette1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Purdue 4. Iowa 5. Baylor1. Iowa 2. Gonzaga 3. Baylor 4. Purdue 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Houston 4. Iowa 5. Utah State1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Houston 4. Iowa 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Iowa 3. Houston 4. Baylor 5. Alabama1. Houston 2. Baylor 3. Gonzaga 4. Purdue 5. Arizona1. Houston 2. Gonzaga 3. Baylor 4. Purdue 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. Gonzaga 3. Houston 4. Purdue 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Houston 4. Miami 5. Iowa1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Iowa 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Arizona 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Arizona 5. Iowa1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Arizona 4. Baylor 5. Alabama1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Arizona 4. Baylor 5. Alabama1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Arizona 5. Marquette1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. UConn 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Arizona 3. Houston 4. UConn 5. Baylor1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Arizona 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Houston 4. Arizona 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Iowa 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Iowa 4. Baylor 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Arizona 3. Houston 4. Baylor 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Arizona 3. Houston 4. UConn 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Houston 3. Baylor 4. Purdue 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Iowa 3. Houston 4. Arizona 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Iowa 3. Houston 4. Toledo 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Toledo 3. Houston 4. Baylor 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Toledo 3. Baylor 4. Arizona 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Toledo 4. UConn 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Toledo 4. Iowa 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Arizona 4. Toledo 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Purdue 3. Iowa 4. Baylor 5. Arizona1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Toledo 4. Iowa 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Kentucky 4. Toledo 5. Purdue1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Alabama 4. Iowa 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Iowa 4. Missouri 5. UConn1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Iowa 5. Alabama1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Houston 5. Iowa1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Alabama 5. Iowa1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. Toledo 4. UConn 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Iowa 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Iowa 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. UConn 3. Iowa 4. Baylor 5. Houston1. Gonzaga 2. Iowa 3. UConn 4. Toledo 5. Baylor
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 129 cutoffs from 2023-01-21 to 2023-04-04. Axis spans 1.12 to 1.28. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Gonzaga
  • Baylor
  • Toledo
  • UConn
  • Purdue
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjOE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Gonzaga Bulldogs 1.27 112 #3 Elite 8 (out)
2 Baylor Bears 1.23 112 #3 Round of 32 (out)
3 Toledo Rockets 1.22 112 —
4 UConn Huskies 1.21 112 #4 Champion
5 Purdue Boilermakers 1.21 112 #1 Round of 64 (out)
6 Houston Cougars 1.21 112 #1 Sweet 16 (out)
7 Arizona Wildcats 1.21 112 #2 Round of 64 (out)
8 Xavier Musketeers 1.21 112 #3 Sweet 16 (out)
9 Marquette Golden Eagles 1.21 112 #2 Round of 32 (out)
10 Missouri Tigers 1.20 112 #7 Round of 32 (out)
11 Alabama Crimson Tide 1.20 112 #1 Sweet 16 (out)
12 Iowa Hawkeyes 1.20 112 #8 Round of 64 (out)
13 Kentucky Wildcats 1.20 112 #6 Round of 32 (out)
14 Utah State Aggies 1.20 112 #10 Round of 64 (out)
15 Miami Hurricanes 1.19 112 #5 Final Four (out)
16 West Virginia Mountaineers 1.19 112 #9 Round of 64 (out)
17 Kansas Jayhawks 1.18 112 #1 Round of 32 (out)
18 UCLA Bruins 1.18 112 #2 Sweet 16 (out)
19 Ohio State Buckeyes 1.18 112 —
20 Penn State Nittany Lions 1.17 112 #10 Round of 32 (out)
21 Indiana Hoosiers 1.17 112 #4 Round of 32 (out)
22 Texas Longhorns 1.17 112 #2 Elite 8 (out)
23 Texas A&M Aggies 1.17 112 #7 Round of 64 (out)
24 Florida Atlantic Owls 1.17 112 #9 Final Four (out)
25 Providence Friars 1.17 112 #11 Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2023-03-12) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.