cbb·system

womens · season 2018

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2018-04-01 teams rated 350 cutoffs in the walk 94
womens 2018: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Baylor 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Baylor 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Oregon 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Louisville 5. Notre Dame1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oregon1. UConn 2. Baylor 3. Mississippi State 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 94 cutoffs from 2017-12-14 to 2018-04-01. Axis spans 0.17 to 0.71. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2018-01-21, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • Baylor
  • Mississippi State
  • Notre Dame
  • Oregon
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.69 81 Final Four (out)
2 Baylor Bears 0.59 81 Final Four (out)
3 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.53 81 Title game (out)
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.50 81 Champion
5 Oregon Ducks 0.47 81 Final Four (advanced)
6 Louisville Cardinals 0.46 81 Final Four (out)
7 Texas Longhorns 0.43 81 Final Four (out)
8 UCLA Bruins 0.42 81 Final Four (advanced)
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.40 81 Final Four (advanced)
10 Florida State Seminoles 0.39 81 Round of 32 (out)
11 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.38 81 Round of 32 (out)
12 Oregon State Beavers 0.38 81 Final Four (advanced)
13 Maryland Terrapins 0.36 81 Round of 32 (out)
14 Green Bay Phoenix 0.36 81 Round of 64 (out)
15 Stanford Cardinal 0.36 81 Final Four (out)
16 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.34 81 Round of 32 (out)
17 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.34 81 Round of 32 (out)
18 South Florida Bulls 0.33 81 Round of 64 (out)
19 Duke Blue Devils 0.32 81 Final Four (out)
20 DePaul Blue Demons 0.32 81 Round of 32 (out)
21 Texas A&M Aggies 0.32 81 Final Four (out)
22 Michigan Wolverines 0.31 81 Round of 32 (out)
23 NC State Wolfpack 0.30 81 Final Four (out)
24 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.30 81 —
25 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.30 81 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2018-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.