cbb·system

womens · season 2025

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2025-04-06 teams rated 362 cutoffs in the walk 100
womens 2025: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Notre Dame 2. Michigan State 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. TCU1. South Carolina 2. UCLA 3. UConn 4. Notre Dame 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. UCLA 3. USC 4. Michigan 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Notre Dame 3. UCLA 4. USC 5. Ole Miss1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Notre Dame 4. UCLA 5. West Virginia1. USC 2. UCLA 3. Notre Dame 4. Oklahoma 5. South Carolina1. UCLA 2. USC 3. Notre Dame 4. Oklahoma 5. South Carolina1. UCLA 2. USC 3. Oklahoma 4. Notre Dame 5. South Carolina1. USC 2. UCLA 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan State 5. Notre Dame1. UCLA 2. USC 3. South Carolina 4. Notre Dame 5. Michigan State1. UCLA 2. USC 3. Notre Dame 4. Michigan State 5. South Carolina1. USC 2. UCLA 3. Michigan State 4. Notre Dame 5. South Carolina1. USC 2. UCLA 3. South Carolina 4. Michigan State 5. Notre Dame1. USC 2. UCLA 3. South Carolina 4. Notre Dame 5. Texas1. USC 2. UCLA 3. South Carolina 4. Texas 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. UConn1. USC 2. Texas 3. South Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. North Carolina1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. UConn 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Texas 4. Duke 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UConn 4. Duke 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UConn 4. Duke 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Duke 4. Texas 5. UCLA1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UCLA 4. Duke 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. North Carolina 4. UCLA 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. UCLA 3. USC 4. Duke 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UCLA 4. West Virginia 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UCLA 4. West Virginia 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UCLA 4. Texas 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. Duke 4. USC 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. Notre Dame 3. USC 4. Duke 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Notre Dame 4. UConn 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Notre Dame 4. Texas 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. Texas 4. UConn 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. USC 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. Notre Dame1. USC 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. West Virginia1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. USC 4. UConn 5. West Virginia1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Duke1. Texas 2. South Carolina 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Notre Dame1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. Duke 5. USC1. UConn 2. South Carolina 3. Texas 4. Duke 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Texas 3. UConn 4. USC 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. USC 4. UConn 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. USC 4. Texas 5. Duke1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. USC 4. Duke 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. UConn 3. Texas 4. Duke 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. USC1. South Carolina 2. Duke 3. UConn 4. Texas 5. USC
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 100 cutoffs from 2024-12-07 to 2025-04-06. Axis spans 0.63 to 0.85. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: raw fit. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2025-01-24, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • South Carolina
  • Texas
  • Duke
  • USC
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.65 86 Champion
2 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.65 86 Title game (out)
3 Texas Longhorns 0.66 86 Final Four (out)
4 Duke Blue Devils 0.67 86 Elite 8 (out)
5 USC Trojans 0.67 86 Elite 8 (out)
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.68 86 Sweet 16 (out)
7 UCLA Bruins 0.70 86 Final Four (out)
8 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.71 86 Round of 32 (out)
9 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.73 86 Sweet 16 (out)
10 Oklahoma Sooners 0.73 86 Sweet 16 (out)
11 Ole Miss Rebels 0.73 86 Sweet 16 (out)
12 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.74 86 Round of 32 (out)
13 Baylor Bears 0.74 86 Round of 32 (out)
14 Michigan State Spartans 0.75 86 Round of 32 (out)
15 LSU Tigers 0.75 86 Elite 8 (out)
16 Kentucky Wildcats 0.76 86 Round of 32 (out)
17 Kansas State Wildcats 0.76 86 Sweet 16 (out)
18 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.76 86 Round of 32 (out)
19 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.77 86 Round of 32 (out)
20 TCU Horned Frogs 0.77 86 Elite 8 (out)
21 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.77 86 Sweet 16 (out)
22 NC State Wolfpack 0.78 86 Sweet 16 (out)
23 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.78 86 Round of 64 (out)
24 Michigan Wolverines 0.78 86 Round of 32 (out)
25 Oregon Ducks 0.78 86 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2025-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.