cbb·system

mens · season 2025

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2025-04-08 teams rated 364 cutoffs in the walk 135
mens 2025: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Kansas 4. Tennessee 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Kansas 4. Tennessee 5. Iowa State1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Kansas 4. Tennessee 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Tennessee 4. Kansas 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Kansas 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Tennessee 4. Kansas 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Tennessee 4. Kansas 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Duke 3. Tennessee 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. St. John's 4. Duke 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. St. John's 4. Duke 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Kansas 5. St. John's1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. Florida 5. St. John's1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Kansas1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. Kansas 5. Michigan State1. Tennessee 2. Houston 3. Duke 4. Michigan State 5. St. John's1. Duke 2. Houston 3. Tennessee 4. Iowa State 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Iowa State1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Florida1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Maryland1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Maryland1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. Tennessee 3. Duke 4. St. John's 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Maryland1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Tennessee 4. Duke 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. Duke 3. St. John's 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. Duke 3. St. John's 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Tennessee 4. Duke 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Tennessee 4. Duke 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Maryland1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Tennessee 4. Duke 5. Maryland1. Houston 2. St. John's 3. Duke 4. Tennessee 5. Michigan State
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 135 cutoffs from 2025-01-24 to 2025-04-08. Axis spans 0.82 to 1.00. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Houston
  • Tennessee
  • Duke
  • St. John's
  • Maryland
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Houston Cougars 0.85 115 #1 Title game (out)
2 Tennessee Volunteers 0.87 115 #2 Elite 8 (out)
3 Duke Blue Devils 0.88 115 #1 Final Four (out)
4 St. John's Red Storm 0.89 115 #2 Round of 32 (out)
5 Maryland Terrapins 0.91 115 #4 Sweet 16 (out)
6 Kansas Jayhawks 0.91 115 #7 Round of 64 (out)
7 Florida Gators 0.91 115 #1 Champion
8 Saint Mary's Gaels 0.91 115 #7 Round of 32 (out)
9 Auburn Tigers 0.92 115 #1 Final Four (out)
10 Iowa State Cyclones 0.92 115 #3 Round of 32 (out)
11 Michigan State Spartans 0.92 115 #2 Elite 8 (out)
12 San Diego State Aztecs 0.93 115 #11 Play-in (out)
13 Texas A&M Aggies 0.93 115 #4 Round of 32 (out)
14 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.94 115 —
15 Michigan Wolverines 0.94 115 #5 Sweet 16 (out)
16 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.94 115 #8 Round of 32 (out)
17 Arkansas Razorbacks 0.95 115 #10 Sweet 16 (out)
18 New Mexico Lobos 0.95 115 #10 Round of 32 (out)
19 Texas Tech Red Raiders 0.95 115 #3 Elite 8 (out)
20 Clemson Tigers 0.95 115 #5 Round of 64 (out)
21 Louisville Cardinals 0.95 115 #8 Round of 64 (out)
22 UCLA Bruins 0.96 115 #7 Round of 32 (out)
23 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.96 115 #2 Elite 8 (out)
24 Arizona Wildcats 0.96 115 #4 Sweet 16 (out)
25 Oregon Ducks 0.96 115 #5 Round of 32 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2025-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.