cbb·system

womens · season 2020

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

The NCAA championship game for womens 2020 has no result in the store, so the Postseason column below shows the furthest completed round and no team is marked a champion. A walk-forward's final cutoff is the morning of the title game, so the season's last rating snapshot precedes the final by design.

end state cutoff 2020-03-12 teams rated 354 cutoffs in the walk 81
womens 2020: AdjME for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffs1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Maryland 5. Indiana1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. UConn 4. Maryland 5. Indiana1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. UConn 5. South Carolina1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. Maryland 4. South Carolina 5. UConn1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. Maryland 5. South Carolina1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Maryland 4. Oregon 5. South Carolina1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Oregon 4. South Carolina 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. Oregon1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. UConn 5. Maryland1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. Baylor 3. South Carolina 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn1. Oregon 2. South Carolina 3. Baylor 4. Maryland 5. UConn
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 81 cutoffs from 2019-12-15 to 2020-03-12. Axis spans 0.22 to 0.63. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2020-01-26, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Oregon
  • South Carolina
  • Baylor
  • Maryland
  • UConn
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Oregon Ducks 0.62 81 —
2 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.57 81 —
3 Baylor Bears 0.54 81 —
4 Maryland Terrapins 0.54 81 —
5 UConn Huskies 0.53 81 —
6 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.41 81 —
7 Stanford Cardinal 0.41 81 —
8 Louisville Cardinals 0.40 81 —
9 Indiana Hoosiers 0.38 81 —
10 Oregon State Beavers 0.38 81 —
11 South Dakota Coyotes 0.38 81 —
12 Princeton Tigers 0.37 81 —
13 Northwestern Wildcats 0.37 81 —
14 NC State Wolfpack 0.35 81 —
15 Arkansas Razorbacks 0.34 81 —
16 UCLA Bruins 0.34 81 —
17 Arizona Wildcats 0.33 81 —
18 Florida State Seminoles 0.33 81 —
19 Texas A&M Aggies 0.33 81 —
20 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.32 81 —
21 Kentucky Wildcats 0.31 81 —
22 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.31 81 —
23 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.31 81 —
24 DePaul Blue Demons 0.28 81 —
25 Michigan Wolverines 0.28 81 —

Ranked at the season's last cutoff — this season has no cutoff whose ratings saw no NCAA tournament game. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.