cbb·system

womens · season 2018

The season's top 100 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2018-04-01 teams rated 350 cutoffs in the walk 94
AdjDE (points allowed per possession)
womens 2018: AdjDE for the top 100 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsD-I average 0.95 (Mar 16)start of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournamentDec 14, 2017 1. Green Bay 0.62 2. UConn 0.64 3. Louisville 0.69 4. Tennessee 0.71 5. West Virginia 0.72Dec 17, 2017 1. Green Bay 0.63 2. UConn 0.64 3. Louisville 0.69 4. Tennessee 0.70 5. Baylor 0.72Dec 18, 2017 1. Green Bay 0.63 2. UConn 0.63 3. Louisville 0.70 4. Tennessee 0.70 5. Baylor 0.72Dec 20, 2017 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.64 3. Louisville 0.71 4. Tennessee 0.71 5. Baylor 0.72Dec 21, 2017 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.65 3. Tennessee 0.71 4. Louisville 0.71 5. Baylor 0.72Dec 23, 2017 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.65 3. Baylor 0.72 4. Tennessee 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Dec 23, 2017 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.65 3. Baylor 0.71 4. Tennessee 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Dec 29, 2017 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.66 3. Baylor 0.72 4. Tennessee 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Dec 31, 2017 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.66 3. Louisville 0.72 4. Baylor 0.73 5. Mississippi State 0.73Dec 31, 2017 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Louisville 0.72 4. Baylor 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Jan 03, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Tennessee 0.73Jan 04, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.71 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Tennessee 0.73Jan 06, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Tennessee 0.72Jan 07, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. Baylor 0.71 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Tennessee 0.72Jan 10, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. Baylor 0.71 4. UCLA 0.71 5. Louisville 0.72Jan 12, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. UCLA 0.71 4. Baylor 0.71 5. Louisville 0.72Jan 13, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.71 4. UCLA 0.71 5. Louisville 0.72Jan 15, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.71 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Jan 16, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Jan 18, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Rutgers 0.73Jan 20, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Jan 21, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Jan 23, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Jan 24, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.70 4. UCLA 0.71 5. Louisville 0.71Jan 26, 2018 1. UConn 0.66 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. UCLA 0.71Jan 27, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. UCLA 0.71Jan 29, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. UCLA 0.72Feb 01, 2018 1. UConn 0.66 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.72 5. UCLA 0.73Feb 02, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.67 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.72 5. UCLA 0.73Feb 04, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. UCLA 0.73Feb 06, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.68 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 08, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.69 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.71 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 09, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.71 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 11, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 13, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Stanford 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Feb 14, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Green Bay 0.70 3. Baylor 0.70 4. Stanford 0.72 5. Louisville 0.72Feb 17, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Stanford 0.72Feb 18, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Stanford 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Feb 20, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Mississippi State 0.72 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 21, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Mississippi State 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Feb 23, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Mississippi State 0.72 5. Stanford 0.73Feb 25, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.70 3. Green Bay 0.71 4. Mississippi State 0.72 5. Louisville 0.73Feb 25, 2018 1. UConn 0.65 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.73 5. Mississippi State 0.73Feb 28, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Mar 01, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Mar 03, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Mar 06, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.73Mar 07, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.73Mar 10, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 11, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 15, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.68 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 16, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 17, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Georgia 0.74Mar 20, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.73 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 23, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Baylor 0.68 3. Green Bay 0.73 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.74Mar 24, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.73 4. Mississippi State 0.73 5. Louisville 0.73Mar 27, 2018 1. UConn 0.63 2. Baylor 0.68 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Mar 30, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Green Bay 0.72 4. Louisville 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Mar 31, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Louisville 0.72 4. Green Bay 0.72 5. Mississippi State 0.73Apr 01, 2018 1. UConn 0.64 2. Baylor 0.69 3. Louisville 0.72 4. Green Bay 0.73 5. Mississippi State 0.73
Walk-forward cutoff, season 2018
  • other ranked teams
  • NCAA tournament starts
  • warm-up (shaded)
  • D-I average
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 94 cutoffs from 2017-12-14 to 2018-04-01. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2018-01-21, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • UConn
  • Baylor
  • Green Bay
  • Mississippi State
  • Louisville
  • 95 more, drawn as grey context

The top 100 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 UConn Huskies 0.64 81 Final Four (out)
2 Baylor Bears 0.69 81 Sweet 16 (out)
3 Green Bay Phoenix 0.72 81 Round of 64 (out)
4 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.73 81 Title game (out)
5 Louisville Cardinals 0.74 81 Final Four (out)
6 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.74 81 Round of 32 (out)
7 Stanford Cardinal 0.76 81 Sweet 16 (out)
8 Texas Longhorns 0.76 81 Sweet 16 (out)
9 NC State Wolfpack 0.77 81 Sweet 16 (out)
10 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.77 81 Round of 32 (out)
11 UCLA Bruins 0.77 81 Elite 8 (out)
12 Duke Blue Devils 0.78 81 Sweet 16 (out)
13 UCF Knights 0.78 81 —
14 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.78 81 Round of 32 (out)
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.78 81 Champion
16 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.79 81 Elite 8 (out)
17 Miami Hurricanes 0.79 81 Round of 64 (out)
18 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.79 81 —
19 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.79 81 —
20 Oregon State Beavers 0.80 81 Elite 8 (out)
21 USC Trojans 0.80 81 —
22 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.81 81 —
23 Buffalo Bulls 0.82 81 Sweet 16 (out)
24 LSU Tigers 0.82 81 Round of 64 (out)
25 Virginia Cavaliers 0.82 81 Round of 32 (out)
26 Auburn Tigers 0.82 81 —
27 Oregon Ducks 0.82 81 Elite 8 (out)
28 Michigan Wolverines 0.82 81 Round of 32 (out)
29 Maryland Terrapins 0.82 81 Round of 32 (out)
30 Utah Utes 0.83 81 —
31 Oklahoma Sooners 0.83 81 Round of 64 (out)
32 Elon Phoenix 0.83 81 Round of 64 (out)
33 Princeton Tigers 0.83 81 Round of 64 (out)
34 Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.83 81 Round of 64 (out)
35 Pennsylvania Quakers 0.83 81 —
36 St. John's Red Storm 0.83 81 —
37 Michigan State Spartans 0.84 81 —
38 Little Rock Trojans 0.84 81 Round of 64 (out)
39 James Madison Dukes 0.84 81 —
40 Florida State Seminoles 0.84 81 Round of 32 (out)
41 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.84 81 Round of 32 (out)
42 Ball State Cardinals 0.84 81 —
43 Navy Midshipmen 0.84 81 —
44 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.85 81 Round of 64 (out)
45 Missouri Tigers 0.85 81 Round of 64 (out)
46 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.85 81 Round of 32 (out)
47 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.85 81 Round of 64 (out)
48 Georgetown Hoyas 0.85 81 —
49 Drexel Dragons 0.85 81 —
50 DePaul Blue Demons 0.86 81 Round of 32 (out)
51 Quinnipiac Bobcats 0.86 81 Round of 32 (out)
52 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 0.86 81 Round of 64 (out)
53 South Florida Bulls 0.86 81 Round of 64 (out)
54 Washington State Cougars 0.86 81 —
55 Northern Iowa Panthers 0.86 81 —
56 Clemson Tigers 0.86 81 —
57 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.87 81 —
58 Colorado State Rams 0.87 81 —
59 Fordham Rams 0.87 81 —
60 SMU Mustangs 0.87 81 —
61 Purdue Boilermakers 0.87 81 —
62 California Golden Bears 0.87 81 Round of 64 (out)
63 Iowa State Cyclones 0.87 81 —
64 Pittsburgh Panthers 0.87 81 —
65 Marquette Golden Eagles 0.88 81 Round of 32 (out)
66 Cincinnati Bearcats 0.88 81 —
67 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.88 81 —
68 George Washington Revolutionaries 0.88 81 Round of 64 (out)
69 Seton Hall Pirates 0.88 81 —
70 BYU Cougars 0.88 81 —
71 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.88 81 —
72 Virginia Tech Hokies 0.88 81 —
73 UAlbany Great Danes 0.88 81 —
74 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 0.88 81 —
75 Syracuse Orange 0.88 81 Round of 64 (out)
76 Mercer Bears 0.88 81 Round of 64 (out)
77 IU Indianapolis Jaguars 0.88 81 —
78 Delaware Blue Hens 0.88 81 —
79 Dayton Flyers 0.88 81 Round of 64 (out)
80 Texas A&M Aggies 0.88 81 Sweet 16 (out)
81 Maine Black Bears 0.88 81 Round of 64 (out)
82 Radford Highlanders 0.89 81 —
83 Binghamton Bearcats 0.89 81 —
84 Kansas State Wildcats 0.89 81 —
85 Villanova Wildcats 0.89 81 Round of 32 (out)
86 Air Force Falcons 0.89 81 —
87 Robert Morris Colonials 0.89 81 —
88 East Tennessee State Bucs 0.89 81 —
89 North Texas Mean Green 0.89 81 —
90 Lamar Cardinals 0.89 81 —
91 Indiana Hoosiers 0.90 81 —
92 North Carolina A&T Aggies 0.90 81 Round of 64 (out)
93 Creighton Bluejays 0.90 81 Round of 32 (out)
94 George Mason Patriots 0.90 81 —
95 American University Eagles 0.90 81 Round of 64 (out)
96 Butler Bulldogs 0.90 81 —
97 Illinois State Redbirds 0.90 81 —
98 Wisconsin Badgers 0.90 81 —
99 Colorado Buffaloes 0.90 81 —
100 Yale Bulldogs 0.90 81 —

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2018-03-16) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.