womens · season 2020
The season's top 100 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
The NCAA championship game for womens 2020 has no result in the store, so the Postseason column below shows the furthest completed round and no team is marked a champion. A walk-forward's final cutoff is the morning of the title game, so the season's last rating snapshot precedes the final by design.
- other ranked teams
- warm-up (shaded)
- D-I average
train_cutoff_at — 81 cutoffs from
2019-12-15 to 2020-03-12.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
Series: smoothed (causal EWMA).
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2020-01-26, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Baylor
- Maryland
- South Carolina
- UConn
- Princeton
- 95 more, drawn as grey context
The top 100 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baylor Bears | 0.65 | 81 | — |
| 2 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.67 | 81 | — |
| 3 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.67 | 81 | — |
| 4 | UConn Huskies | 0.68 | 81 | — |
| 5 | Princeton Tigers | 0.69 | 81 | — |
| 6 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 7 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 8 | Oregon Ducks | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 9 | Northwestern Wildcats | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 10 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 11 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 0.74 | 81 | — |
| 12 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.75 | 81 | — |
| 13 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.75 | 81 | — |
| 14 | Stanford Cardinal | 0.76 | 81 | — |
| 15 | South Dakota Coyotes | 0.77 | 81 | — |
| 16 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.78 | 81 | — |
| 17 | Oregon State Beavers | 0.78 | 81 | — |
| 18 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.78 | 81 | — |
| 19 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.78 | 81 | — |
| 20 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.79 | 81 | — |
| 21 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.79 | 81 | — |
| 22 | UCLA Bruins | 0.79 | 81 | — |
| 23 | BYU Cougars | 0.79 | 81 | — |
| 24 | Oklahoma State Cowgirls | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 25 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 26 | Virginia Cavaliers | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 27 | Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 28 | UCF Knights | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 29 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 30 | Texas Longhorns | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 31 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 32 | Kentucky Wildcats | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 33 | TCU Horned Frogs | 0.80 | 81 | — |
| 34 | San Diego Toreros | 0.81 | 81 | — |
| 35 | Georgia Lady Bulldogs | 0.81 | 81 | — |
| 36 | Marquette Golden Eagles | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 37 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 38 | James Madison Dukes | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 39 | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 40 | South Florida Bulls | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 41 | Washington Huskies | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 42 | Syracuse Orange | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 43 | Robert Morris Colonials | 0.82 | 81 | — |
| 44 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 45 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 46 | Dayton Flyers | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 47 | USC Trojans | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 48 | LSU Tigers | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 49 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 50 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 51 | Old Dominion Monarchs | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 52 | Purdue Boilermakers | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 53 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 54 | Butler Bulldogs | 0.83 | 81 | — |
| 55 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.84 | 81 | — |
| 56 | North Carolina A&T Aggies | 0.84 | 81 | — |
| 57 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.84 | 81 | — |
| 58 | Fordham Rams | 0.85 | 81 | — |
| 59 | Ball State Cardinals | 0.85 | 81 | — |
| 60 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.85 | 81 | — |
| 61 | VCU Rams | 0.85 | 81 | — |
| 62 | Villanova Wildcats | 0.85 | 81 | — |
| 63 | Northern Iowa Panthers | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 64 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 65 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 66 | Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 67 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 68 | South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 69 | Pennsylvania Quakers | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 70 | Tulane Green Wave | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 71 | Yale Bulldogs | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 72 | SMU Mustangs | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 73 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 74 | UT Arlington Mavericks | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 75 | Belmont Bruins | 0.86 | 81 | — |
| 76 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 77 | Southern Illinois Salukis | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 78 | Rice Owls | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 79 | Seton Hall Pirates | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 80 | Drexel Dragons | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 81 | Missouri State Lady Bears | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 82 | Bucknell Bison | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 83 | IU Indianapolis Jaguars | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 84 | Bradley Braves | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 85 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 86 | Providence Friars | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 87 | Harvard Crimson | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 88 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.87 | 81 | — |
| 89 | Saint Louis Billikens | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 90 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 91 | Idaho Vandals | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 92 | Boston College Eagles | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 93 | Eastern Michigan Eagles | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 94 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 95 | DePaul Blue Demons | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 96 | Illinois State Redbirds | 0.88 | 81 | — |
| 97 | UT Martin Skyhawks | 0.89 | 81 | — |
| 98 | UNLV Lady Rebels | 0.89 | 81 | — |
| 99 | Florida Gators | 0.89 | 81 | — |
| 100 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.89 | 81 | — |
Ranked at the season's last cutoff — this season has no cutoff whose ratings saw no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.