cbb·system

womens · season 2020

The season's top 100 going into the tournament, by AdjME — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

The NCAA championship game for womens 2020 has no result in the store, so the Postseason column below shows the furthest completed round and no team is marked a champion. A walk-forward's final cutoff is the morning of the title game, so the season's last rating snapshot precedes the final by design.

end state cutoff 2020-03-12 teams rated 354 cutoffs in the walk 81
AdjME (points per possession)
womens 2020: AdjME for the top 100 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsDec 15, 2019 1. Oregon 0.58 2. Baylor 0.54 3. UConn 0.51 4. Maryland 0.49 5. Indiana 0.48Dec 18, 2019 1. Oregon 0.57 2. Baylor 0.54 3. UConn 0.52 4. Maryland 0.49 5. Indiana 0.48Dec 20, 2019 1. Baylor 0.56 2. Oregon 0.54 3. UConn 0.53 4. Maryland 0.51 5. South Carolina 0.50Dec 21, 2019 1. Baylor 0.57 2. Oregon 0.53 3. Maryland 0.51 4. UConn 0.51 5. South Carolina 0.51Dec 22, 2019 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.53 3. Maryland 0.53 4. South Carolina 0.51 5. UConn 0.51Dec 29, 2019 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.53 3. UConn 0.52 4. Maryland 0.52 5. South Carolina 0.52Dec 30, 2019 1. Baylor 0.57 2. UConn 0.53 3. Oregon 0.53 4. Maryland 0.53 5. South Carolina 0.52Dec 31, 2019 1. Baylor 0.56 2. UConn 0.53 3. Maryland 0.53 4. Oregon 0.52 5. South Carolina 0.51Jan 02, 2020 1. Baylor 0.56 2. UConn 0.53 3. Oregon 0.52 4. South Carolina 0.51 5. Maryland 0.50Jan 03, 2020 1. Baylor 0.55 2. UConn 0.53 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. Maryland 0.50 5. Oregon 0.50Jan 05, 2020 1. Baylor 0.55 2. Oregon 0.53 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.48Jan 05, 2020 1. Baylor 0.55 2. Oregon 0.54 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.48Jan 07, 2020 1. Oregon 0.54 2. Baylor 0.54 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 09, 2020 1. Oregon 0.56 2. Baylor 0.53 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.52 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 10, 2020 1. Oregon 0.56 2. Baylor 0.54 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 12, 2020 1. Oregon 0.55 2. Baylor 0.54 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.45Jan 14, 2020 1. Baylor 0.57 2. Oregon 0.55 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.46Jan 15, 2020 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.55 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 16, 2020 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.54 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.51 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 18, 2020 1. Baylor 0.59 2. Oregon 0.55 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Jan 19, 2020 1. Baylor 0.60 2. Oregon 0.55 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Jan 19, 2020 1. Baylor 0.60 2. Oregon 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Jan 22, 2020 1. Baylor 0.59 2. Oregon 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.50 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 23, 2020 1. Baylor 0.60 2. Oregon 0.58 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.50 5. Maryland 0.47Jan 25, 2020 1. Baylor 0.61 2. Oregon 0.58 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.50 5. Maryland 0.46Jan 26, 2020 1. Baylor 0.59 2. Oregon 0.58 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.50 5. Maryland 0.45Jan 27, 2020 1. Baylor 0.59 2. Oregon 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.45Jan 29, 2020 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.52 4. UConn 0.48 5. Maryland 0.45Jan 30, 2020 1. Baylor 0.57 2. Oregon 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.45Jan 31, 2020 1. Baylor 0.58 2. Oregon 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.53 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.46Feb 02, 2020 1. Baylor 0.57 2. Oregon 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.47Feb 02, 2020 1. Baylor 0.57 2. Oregon 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.47Feb 04, 2020 1. Oregon 0.58 2. Baylor 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Feb 06, 2020 1. Oregon 0.59 2. Baylor 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.54 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Feb 07, 2020 1. Oregon 0.59 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.55 4. Maryland 0.49 5. UConn 0.48Feb 08, 2020 1. Oregon 0.59 2. Baylor 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.55 4. Maryland 0.49 5. UConn 0.48Feb 09, 2020 1. Oregon 0.60 2. Baylor 0.57 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. UConn 0.49 5. Maryland 0.48Feb 11, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.49 5. UConn 0.48Feb 13, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.57 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.48Feb 14, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.48Feb 15, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.48Feb 16, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.48Feb 18, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.49Feb 19, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.50 5. UConn 0.48Feb 22, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.51 5. UConn 0.48Feb 23, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.51 5. UConn 0.48Feb 23, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.55 4. Maryland 0.51 5. UConn 0.49Feb 26, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.51 5. UConn 0.48Feb 27, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.52 5. UConn 0.48Feb 28, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.55 4. Maryland 0.52 5. UConn 0.49Mar 01, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.53 5. UConn 0.50Mar 02, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.53 5. UConn 0.50Mar 04, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.55 5. UConn 0.51Mar 05, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.55 5. UConn 0.52Mar 06, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.56 4. Maryland 0.55 5. UConn 0.52Mar 08, 2020 1. Oregon 0.61 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.55 4. Maryland 0.53 5. UConn 0.52Mar 09, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. Baylor 0.56 3. South Carolina 0.56 4. Maryland 0.53 5. UConn 0.52Mar 10, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.55 4. Maryland 0.53 5. UConn 0.53Mar 12, 2020 1. Oregon 0.63 2. South Carolina 0.56 3. Baylor 0.55 4. Maryland 0.54 5. UConn 0.53Mar 12, 2020 1. Oregon 0.62 2. South Carolina 0.57 3. Baylor 0.54 4. Maryland 0.54 5. UConn 0.53
Walk-forward cutoff, season 2020
  • other ranked teams
  • warm-up (shaded)
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 81 cutoffs from 2019-12-15 to 2020-03-12. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2020-01-26, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • Oregon
  • South Carolina
  • Baylor
  • Maryland
  • UConn
  • 95 more, drawn as grey context

The top 100 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjME Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Oregon Ducks 0.62 81 —
2 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.57 81 —
3 Baylor Bears 0.54 81 —
4 Maryland Terrapins 0.54 81 —
5 UConn Huskies 0.53 81 —
6 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.41 81 —
7 Stanford Cardinal 0.41 81 —
8 Louisville Cardinals 0.40 81 —
9 Indiana Hoosiers 0.38 81 —
10 Oregon State Beavers 0.38 81 —
11 South Dakota Coyotes 0.38 81 —
12 Princeton Tigers 0.37 81 —
13 Northwestern Wildcats 0.37 81 —
14 NC State Wolfpack 0.35 81 —
15 Arkansas Razorbacks 0.34 81 —
16 UCLA Bruins 0.34 81 —
17 Arizona Wildcats 0.33 81 —
18 Florida State Seminoles 0.33 81 —
19 Texas A&M Aggies 0.33 81 —
20 Iowa Hawkeyes 0.32 81 —
21 Kentucky Wildcats 0.31 81 —
22 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.31 81 —
23 Ohio State Buckeyes 0.31 81 —
24 DePaul Blue Demons 0.28 81 —
25 Michigan Wolverines 0.28 81 —
26 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.28 81 —
27 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.27 81 —
28 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.27 81 —
29 Iowa State Cyclones 0.26 81 —
30 Duke Blue Devils 0.25 81 —
31 TCU Horned Frogs 0.25 81 —
32 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.25 81 —
33 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles 0.25 81 —
34 Missouri State Lady Bears 0.24 81 —
35 Virginia Tech Hokies 0.24 81 —
36 Marquette Golden Eagles 0.24 81 —
37 James Madison Dukes 0.24 81 —
38 Texas Longhorns 0.23 81 —
39 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.23 81 —
40 Drake Bulldogs 0.22 81 —
41 Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.22 81 —
42 Seton Hall Pirates 0.22 81 —
43 Kansas State Wildcats 0.21 81 —
44 LSU Tigers 0.21 81 —
45 UCF Knights 0.21 81 —
46 Boston College Eagles 0.21 81 —
47 Syracuse Orange 0.21 81 —
48 Purdue Boilermakers 0.20 81 —
49 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 0.20 81 —
50 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.20 81 —
51 St. John's Red Storm 0.20 81 —
52 Virginia Cavaliers 0.20 81 —
53 USC Trojans 0.20 81 —
54 South Florida Bulls 0.19 81 —
55 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.19 81 —
56 Cincinnati Bearcats 0.19 81 —
57 Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.19 81 —
58 Texas Tech Lady Raiders 0.18 81 —
59 Washington Huskies 0.18 81 —
60 Creighton Bluejays 0.18 81 —
61 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.18 81 —
62 IU Indianapolis Jaguars 0.18 81 —
63 Michigan State Spartans 0.18 81 —
64 Washington State Cougars 0.17 81 —
65 Colorado Buffaloes 0.17 81 —
66 Old Dominion Monarchs 0.16 81 —
67 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.16 81 —
68 Northern Iowa Panthers 0.16 81 —
69 Pennsylvania Quakers 0.16 81 —
70 Montana State Bobcats 0.15 81 —
71 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.15 81 —
72 Dayton Flyers 0.15 81 —
73 Oklahoma Sooners 0.15 81 —
74 Utah Utes 0.15 81 —
75 Bradley Braves 0.14 81 —
76 Rice Owls 0.14 81 —
77 California Golden Bears 0.14 81 —
78 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.14 81 —
79 Miami Hurricanes 0.14 81 —
80 Western Kentucky Lady Toppers 0.13 81 —
81 Villanova Wildcats 0.13 81 —
82 Southern Illinois Salukis 0.13 81 —
83 BYU Cougars 0.13 81 —
84 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.13 81 —
85 Ohio Bobcats 0.13 81 —
86 Bucknell Bison 0.12 81 —
87 Illinois State Redbirds 0.12 81 —
88 Wisconsin Badgers 0.12 81 —
89 Vanderbilt Commodores 0.12 81 —
90 Central Michigan Chippewas 0.12 81 —
91 Fordham Rams 0.12 81 —
92 Yale Bulldogs 0.12 81 —
93 UAB Blazers 0.11 81 —
94 Auburn Tigers 0.11 81 —
95 Butler Bulldogs 0.11 81 —
96 Portland Pilots 0.10 81 —
97 Marist Red Foxes 0.10 81 —
98 Saint Louis Billikens 0.10 81 —
99 UT Martin Skyhawks 0.10 81 —
100 Boise State Broncos 0.10 81 —

Ranked at the season's last cutoff — this season has no cutoff whose ratings saw no NCAA tournament game. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.